The Global Institute for Strategic Studies (GISS)

Introduction

Climate change is no longer viewed solely as an environmental or scientific issue. Over the past two decades, it has increasingly emerged as one of the defining global security challenges of the 21st century. Rising temperatures, water scarcity, desertification, extreme weather events, food insecurity, and forced displacement are now directly influencing political stability, economic resilience, migration patterns, and armed conflict across multiple regions of the world.

Governments, military institutions, intelligence agencies, and international organizations increasingly recognize climate change as a “threat multiplier” capable of intensifying existing vulnerabilities and accelerating geopolitical tensions. From prolonged droughts in the Middle East and Africa to rising sea levels threatening coastal cities and strategic military infrastructure, environmental pressures are reshaping the global security landscape in profound ways.

The security implications of climate change extend far beyond natural disasters. Competition over shrinking resources, disruptions to agricultural systems, energy insecurity, and climate-driven migration are increasingly contributing to instability in fragile states and conflict-prone regions. At the same time, the global transition toward renewable energy is transforming geopolitical competition over critical minerals, supply chains, and industrial dominance.

Climate change is therefore becoming both a driver of instability and a catalyst for geopolitical transformation. The ability of states to adapt to environmental pressures may become one of the central determinants of future global stability.

Climate Change as a Security Threat

Traditionally, national security focused on military threats, armed conflict, and territorial defence. However, climate change has expanded the definition of security itself.

Extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, floods, and ecosystem collapse increasingly affect state capacity, economic stability, and social cohesion. Climate-related disasters can overwhelm governments, destroy infrastructure, disrupt food production, and intensify political unrest.

The United Nations, NATO, and numerous intelligence agencies now formally recognize climate change as a major security concern. Military planners increasingly analyze how environmental crises may affect conflict zones, migration routes, and strategic competition.

Unlike conventional threats, climate change operates gradually while simultaneously producing sudden crises. This combination makes it especially difficult for governments to manage.

Water Scarcity and Conflict

One of the most significant security consequences of climate change is growing competition over water resources.

Water scarcity already affects large parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall are intensifying pressure on rivers, groundwater reserves, and agricultural systems.

In regions where governance is weak and political tensions are high, water shortages can contribute directly to instability and conflict.

The Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam illustrates how water infrastructure projects are becoming geopolitical flashpoints. Egypt views access to Nile waters as an existential national security issue, while Ethiopia considers the dam essential for economic development and energy production.

Similarly, water shortages in Iraq and Syria have contributed to agricultural collapse, internal displacement, and social instability. Climate-related droughts before the Syrian uprising in 2011 severely affected rural communities, accelerating migration toward urban areas already struggling with unemployment and economic stress.

As climate pressures intensify, disputes over water access may become increasingly common.

Climate Change and Food Security

Agriculture remains highly vulnerable to environmental disruption. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and changing rainfall patterns threaten food production globally.

Many regions already experiencing political fragility are also among the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Climate-related crop failures can increase poverty, inflation, and social unrest while weakening state institutions.

In parts of Africa and the Middle East, reduced agricultural productivity is accelerating rural displacement and increasing dependence on food imports. Countries heavily reliant on imported grain are especially vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, as demonstrated during the Ukraine war, which significantly affected global wheat exports.

Food insecurity can also contribute to political instability. Historically, rising food prices and shortages have often been linked to protests, unrest, and broader social crises.

Climate change therefore represents not only an environmental challenge, but also a major threat to economic and political stability.

Climate Migration and Displacement

Climate change is becoming a major driver of forced migration.

Rising sea levels, droughts, floods, desertification, and environmental degradation are displacing millions of people worldwide. According to international estimates, climate-related displacement could affect hundreds of millions of people by the middle of the century.

This migration creates significant political and humanitarian challenges. Fragile states may struggle to absorb displaced populations, while destination countries increasingly face political tensions related to migration management.

In some regions, climate migration intersects with existing conflict dynamics. Competition over land, water, housing, and employment can intensify communal tensions and contribute to violence.

Small island states are particularly vulnerable. Rising sea levels threaten the very existence of countries such as the Maldives, Kiribati, and Tuvalu, raising unprecedented questions regarding sovereignty, citizenship, and international law.

Climate migration is likely to become one of the defining geopolitical issues of the coming decades.

The Arctic and New Geopolitical Competition

Climate change is also reshaping strategic geography itself.

The melting Arctic is opening new shipping routes, expanding access to natural resources, and intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers including Russia, the United States, Canada, and China.

The Arctic contains vast reserves of oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and fisheries. As ice coverage decreases, these resources become increasingly accessible.

Russia has dramatically expanded its military presence in the Arctic, reopening Cold War-era bases and modernizing northern military infrastructure. NATO members are also increasing Arctic security coordination.

China, despite not being an Arctic state, has declared itself a “near-Arctic power” and seeks influence through economic investments and shipping initiatives.

The Arctic illustrates how climate change can create entirely new arenas of geopolitical rivalry.

Energy Transition and Strategic Competition

The global shift toward renewable energy is transforming international power dynamics.

For decades, geopolitical influence was heavily shaped by control over oil and gas resources. However, the transition toward electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and green technologies is increasing demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements.

Countries possessing large reserves of these minerals may gain strategic importance in the coming decades. China currently dominates much of the global supply chain for rare earth processing and battery manufacturing, creating concerns in Western countries regarding technological dependence.

At the same time, traditional energy exporters face uncertainty regarding future demand for fossil fuels. Gulf states are investing heavily in economic diversification while simultaneously remaining central actors in global energy markets.

The energy transition is therefore creating both opportunities and new geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Climate Change and Military Infrastructure

Climate change increasingly affects military operations and infrastructure worldwide.

Rising sea levels threaten naval bases and coastal military facilities. Extreme heat complicates troop deployments and equipment performance. Wildfires, hurricanes, and floods increasingly damage critical infrastructure.

The U.S. Department of Defense has repeatedly identified climate change as a major operational challenge. Military planners are adapting infrastructure, logistics systems, and operational strategies to address environmental risks.

In fragile regions, humanitarian disasters caused by climate events may also require expanded military involvement in disaster response and stabilization missions.

Climate adaptation is becoming a growing component of defence planning globally.

Environmental Degradation and Armed Groups

Environmental crises can also create opportunities for armed groups and criminal networks.

In regions where governments fail to manage climate pressures effectively, extremist organizations may exploit instability, poverty, and resource scarcity to recruit supporters and expand influence.

In parts of the Sahel region, desertification, shrinking grazing lands, and water shortages have intensified tensions between farming and herding communities. These conflicts are increasingly exploited by jihadist groups operating across Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and neighboring states.

Climate stress alone does not cause terrorism or insurgency, but it can intensify the underlying conditions that enable instability and violence.

International Cooperation and Climate Security

Addressing climate-related security threats requires international cooperation on an unprecedented scale.

Climate change transcends borders, meaning no state can fully isolate itself from its consequences. International coordination is necessary regarding emissions reductions, disaster response, migration management, food security, and resource governance.

However, geopolitical rivalry often complicates climate cooperation. Tensions between major powers can undermine global climate negotiations and reduce trust regarding environmental commitments.

The challenge for the international system is balancing strategic competition with collective action against a shared existential threat.

Conclusion

Climate change is fundamentally reshaping global security. Its effects are already visible in conflicts over water and resources, rising food insecurity, mass displacement, geopolitical competition in the Arctic, and growing instability across vulnerable regions.

Unlike traditional military threats, climate change operates across environmental, economic, political, and social dimensions simultaneously. It acts as a threat multiplier that intensifies existing vulnerabilities and accelerates instability.

As environmental pressures continue to increase, climate adaptation and resilience will become central components of national security strategy. Governments that fail to prepare for these challenges may face severe political, economic, and humanitarian consequences.

The future international order will increasingly depend not only on military strength or technological superiority, but also on the ability of societies and institutions to adapt to a rapidly changing planet.