The Global Institute for Strategic Studies (GISS)
Artificial intelligence has rapidly emerged as one of the most transformative technologies in modern military affairs. While previous revolutions in warfare were driven by gunpowder, mechanization, nuclear weapons, and precision-guided munitions, the current transformation is being shaped by software capable of processing enormous volumes of information, accelerating decision-making, coordinating autonomous systems, and enhancing military operations across every operational domain. The global competition surrounding artificial intelligence is therefore not simply a technological race; it represents a strategic contest over the future balance of military power.
Unlike previous military innovations that focused primarily on improving individual weapons, artificial intelligence influences the entire architecture of warfare. It enhances intelligence collection, battlefield awareness, cyber defence, logistics, command and control, electronic warfare, missile defence, autonomous platforms, and strategic planning simultaneously. States capable of integrating AI effectively will not necessarily possess larger armed forces, but they may achieve faster operational decision-making, greater battlefield adaptability, and superior coordination across increasingly complex military environments.
This paper argues that the international AI competition is fundamentally reshaping global military strategy. Artificial intelligence should no longer be viewed merely as an enabling technology but as a strategic capability capable of influencing deterrence, military effectiveness, geopolitical competition, and the future character of armed conflict. The principal challenge facing governments is therefore not only developing advanced AI systems but also creating institutions, legal frameworks, industrial capacity, and military doctrine capable of employing these technologies responsibly while preserving strategic stability in an increasingly automated security environment.
Throughout modern history, technological revolutions have repeatedly transformed the nature of warfare. The Industrial Revolution enabled mass production of military equipment and reshaped logistics on an unprecedented scale. Aviation fundamentally altered operational reach during the twentieth century, while nuclear weapons introduced deterrence as the central organising principle of global security. More recently, precision-guided weapons, satellite navigation, cyber capabilities, and network-centric warfare redefined military operations by improving accuracy, connectivity, and situational awareness. Artificial intelligence now represents the next major transformation in this historical evolution, but its implications extend considerably further than previous technological advances.
Unlike conventional military technologies, artificial intelligence is not confined to a single weapons system or operational platform. Instead, it functions as a force multiplier capable of improving decision-making across every level of military activity. Machine-learning algorithms can process intelligence data at speeds impossible for human analysts, identify patterns across multiple intelligence sources, assist commanders in evaluating operational options, optimise logistics networks, support cyber defence, and coordinate autonomous platforms operating simultaneously across land, air, maritime, space, and cyberspace. As a result, artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming embedded within the military decision-making process itself rather than serving merely as an additional battlefield capability.
This transformation is occurring against the backdrop of intensifying strategic competition among major powers. Governments increasingly recognise that leadership in artificial intelligence will influence not only economic competitiveness but also national security and geopolitical influence. Investment in AI research has therefore become closely linked with defence planning, industrial policy, semiconductor production, cloud computing infrastructure, and advanced digital ecosystems. Military innovation is no longer driven exclusively by traditional defence contractors; technology companies, research institutions, start-ups, and civilian AI laboratories have become essential contributors to national defence capabilities. The boundary separating civilian technological innovation from military application is becoming progressively less distinct.
The implications extend beyond technological competition itself. Artificial intelligence challenges many of the assumptions that have historically governed deterrence, escalation, and command responsibility. Faster decision cycles may compress political reaction times during crises. Autonomous systems capable of operating with limited human intervention introduce new questions regarding accountability and compliance with international humanitarian law. Machine-assisted battlefield analysis may improve operational effectiveness while simultaneously increasing dependence on complex digital systems vulnerable to cyberattack, manipulation, or algorithmic error. Consequently, the integration of artificial intelligence into military affairs presents not only technological opportunities but also profound strategic, legal, ethical, and political challenges.
This paper examines the emergence of artificial intelligence as a defining factor in contemporary military competition. It explores how AI is reshaping operational planning, strategic deterrence, defence industrial policy, military innovation, and international security governance. Rather than viewing artificial intelligence solely through the lens of technological advancement, the paper argues that AI has become a central determinant of future military power. States capable of integrating artificial intelligence effectively while preserving human oversight, institutional resilience, and strategic stability will possess significant advantages in the evolving global security environment. The competition to achieve that balance is likely to become one of the defining strategic challenges of the twenty-first century.
Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping the Military Balance of Power
For much of modern history, military superiority has been measured through visible indicators of national strength: the size of armed forces, defence expenditure, industrial production, technological sophistication and nuclear deterrence. While these factors remain essential, the emergence of artificial intelligence is fundamentally altering how military power is generated and exercised. Rather than replacing conventional military capabilities, AI is transforming the way they operate by accelerating decision-making, improving operational awareness and enabling unprecedented integration across military domains. The decisive advantage of future armed forces may therefore depend less on the quantity of weapons they possess than on the speed and quality with which they can process information and convert it into operational decisions.
Modern battlefields generate extraordinary volumes of data. Satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, drones, naval sensors, electronic surveillance systems, cyber networks and battlefield communications continuously produce information that far exceeds the capacity of human analysts to process in real time. Artificial intelligence addresses this challenge by rapidly identifying patterns, prioritising threats, correlating intelligence from multiple sources and presenting commanders with actionable assessments within seconds rather than hours. The military value of AI therefore lies not only in automation but in its ability to compress the time required to understand rapidly evolving operational environments. In contemporary conflict, the side capable of making accurate decisions first often gains a decisive strategic advantage.
This acceleration of decision-making has become one of the defining characteristics of modern military competition. Traditional command structures were designed around sequential decision cycles in which information was collected, analysed, evaluated and translated into operational orders through multiple levels of command. Artificial intelligence significantly shortens these processes by automating large portions of intelligence analysis and operational planning. Military commanders increasingly receive predictive assessments rather than simply descriptive reports, enabling them to anticipate adversary behaviour before events fully unfold. As warfare becomes increasingly dynamic, speed itself is evolving into a strategic resource comparable to firepower or logistics.
The implications extend across every operational domain. On land, AI assists in battlefield surveillance, target recognition, autonomous logistics and force coordination. At sea, machine-learning systems enhance maritime domain awareness by identifying unusual vessel movements, monitoring underwater activity and improving anti-submarine operations. In the air, artificial intelligence supports mission planning, electronic warfare, autonomous drone swarms and integrated air-defence systems capable of responding to complex missile attacks. In cyberspace, AI continuously detects network intrusions, identifies malicious code and supports defensive cyber operations against increasingly sophisticated attacks. Even in space, artificial intelligence contributes to satellite management, orbital surveillance and the protection of critical communication infrastructure. Unlike previous technological revolutions, AI is not confined to a single branch of the armed forces; it is becoming an operational layer connecting every military capability into an increasingly integrated system.
The widespread use of unmanned systems further illustrates this transformation. Recent conflicts have demonstrated that relatively inexpensive drones equipped with advanced navigation, computer vision and machine-learning capabilities can perform reconnaissance, precision strikes, electronic warfare and battlefield assessment at costs significantly lower than many conventional weapons platforms. Future developments are expected to move beyond remotely operated systems towards increasingly autonomous platforms capable of navigating contested environments, coordinating with other unmanned systems and adapting to changing battlefield conditions with limited human intervention. Such capabilities have the potential to reshape force structures by reducing dependence on large numbers of personnel while expanding operational reach and persistence.
Artificial intelligence is also transforming military logistics, an area often overlooked in public discussions despite its decisive influence on operational success. Modern armed forces consume enormous quantities of fuel, ammunition, spare parts, medical supplies and technical equipment. Maintaining these supply networks during high-intensity conflict represents one of the greatest challenges facing military planners. AI-driven logistics systems can predict equipment failures before they occur, optimise transportation routes, forecast ammunition consumption, automate warehouse management and improve maintenance scheduling across large military formations. By increasing efficiency throughout military supply chains, artificial intelligence contributes directly to operational endurance and combat readiness.
Perhaps the most significant consequence of AI integration is its impact on strategic competition itself. Military advantage increasingly depends upon continuous innovation rather than periodic acquisition of new weapons systems. Artificial intelligence evolves through software updates, algorithm refinement and expanding computational capacity, allowing military capabilities to improve far more rapidly than traditional hardware-based platforms. Consequently, strategic competition is becoming less dependent upon procurement cycles lasting decades and more reliant upon continuous technological adaptation. States unable to maintain this pace of innovation risk losing military relevance even if they retain substantial conventional capabilities.
This transformation also challenges long-standing concepts of deterrence. During much of the nuclear era, strategic stability depended upon relatively predictable relationships between military capabilities and political decision-making. Artificial intelligence introduces greater uncertainty into these calculations by accelerating operational timelines, increasing automation and creating opportunities for unexpected technological asymmetries. The possibility that one actor may obtain superior AI-enabled intelligence, cyber capabilities or autonomous systems complicates traditional assessments of military balance. Deterrence will increasingly depend not only upon visible military strength but also upon technological capabilities that remain largely invisible until employed during a crisis.
Ultimately, artificial intelligence is changing the very definition of military power. The decisive factor in future conflicts may not be which state possesses the largest arsenal, but which possesses the most adaptive, resilient and intelligent military system. Information superiority, algorithmic speed, technological integration and institutional innovation are emerging alongside conventional capabilities as fundamental components of strategic advantage. As this transformation accelerates, governments will increasingly measure military strength not simply by the number of platforms they deploy, but by the intelligence embedded within those platforms and the speed with which that intelligence can shape battlefield outcomes.
The Global AI Arms Race: Competition Beyond the Battlefield
The global competition surrounding artificial intelligence is no longer confined to laboratories, technology companies or academic research. It has evolved into one of the defining strategic rivalries of the twenty-first century, where technological leadership increasingly determines military influence, economic competitiveness and geopolitical power. Unlike previous arms races centred on the accumulation of conventional or nuclear weapons, the AI race is driven by access to data, computing power, semiconductor manufacturing, software engineering and scientific talent. These assets form the foundation upon which future military capabilities will be built, making technological ecosystems as strategically important as traditional defence industries.
The United States, China and several other technologically advanced powers have recognised that artificial intelligence is becoming a decisive component of national security. Governments are investing unprecedented resources in research and development, advanced computing infrastructure, military innovation programmes and public-private partnerships designed to accelerate AI integration across defence institutions. Unlike previous generations of military competition, where governments relied primarily on state-owned defence industries, today’s technological race is increasingly shaped by cooperation between armed forces, commercial technology firms, universities and research laboratories. Civilian innovation is therefore becoming an essential driver of military transformation, blurring the traditional distinction between commercial technology and defence capability.
This convergence represents one of the most significant structural changes in modern security policy. Many of the technologies underpinning military artificial intelligence—including cloud computing, machine learning, advanced semiconductors, robotics and quantum research—are developed initially for civilian markets before being adapted for defence applications. As a result, economic competitiveness and military competitiveness have become increasingly interconnected. States that lead in commercial artificial intelligence are likely to enjoy substantial advantages in military innovation, while countries unable to develop competitive digital economies may struggle to maintain strategic influence regardless of conventional military expenditure.
Semiconductor production illustrates this new reality. Artificial intelligence depends upon highly advanced processors capable of performing enormous computational tasks at exceptional speed. Consequently, the manufacture of advanced microchips has become a strategic priority extending well beyond commercial markets. Access to semiconductor technology now influences defence planning, intelligence capabilities, autonomous systems development and cyber operations. Competition over semiconductor supply chains therefore represents more than an industrial issue; it has become a central element of geopolitical rivalry. Governments increasingly view secure access to advanced computing hardware as essential to maintaining future military superiority.
The competition also extends into data itself. Artificial intelligence systems improve through exposure to vast quantities of information that enable algorithms to recognise patterns, refine predictions and optimise performance. Military organisations generate enormous volumes of operational data through surveillance systems, intelligence collection, logistics networks and battlefield operations. States capable of integrating these diverse datasets securely and efficiently gain significant advantages in training advanced military AI systems. Consequently, data governance has become a strategic issue alongside cybersecurity, digital infrastructure and intelligence cooperation. Protecting sensitive military data while enabling effective AI development represents one of the most complex challenges confronting defence institutions.
Another defining feature of the AI arms race is the pace at which innovation occurs. Traditional military procurement cycles often extend over decades, reflecting the complexity of designing, testing and producing major weapons platforms. Artificial intelligence evolves far more rapidly. Software updates, algorithm improvements and increased computational capacity can significantly enhance operational performance within months rather than years. This accelerated innovation cycle requires defence institutions to adopt far more flexible acquisition processes capable of incorporating technological advances continuously rather than through infrequent procurement programmes. Military organisations built around slow bureaucratic planning increasingly face pressure to adapt to the pace of commercial technological development.
The race for artificial intelligence is also transforming international alliances. Technological cooperation now occupies a central position in defence partnerships, with governments increasingly sharing research, cybersecurity expertise, digital infrastructure and innovation programmes alongside traditional military cooperation. Joint development of AI-enabled capabilities has become an important element of strategic partnerships because no single nation possesses a monopoly over every component of the AI ecosystem. Collaboration therefore enhances collective resilience while reducing duplication of research efforts and accelerating operational innovation. Future military alliances may increasingly be defined not only by shared security commitments but also by shared technological ecosystems capable of sustaining long-term strategic competitiveness.
However, the rapid militarisation of artificial intelligence also introduces new risks. The absence of universally accepted international norms governing military AI creates uncertainty regarding acceptable operational practices, autonomous weapons, algorithmic accountability and escalation management. As states accelerate AI integration without corresponding regulatory frameworks, the potential for misunderstanding, unintended escalation or technological miscalculation increases significantly. Unlike nuclear weapons, whose destructive consequences encouraged relatively stable deterrence frameworks, artificial intelligence evolves continuously through incremental innovation, making arms control considerably more complex. This creates a strategic environment where technological competition may advance faster than the international institutions responsible for managing its risks.
Ultimately, the AI arms race represents far more than competition over advanced software. It is a contest to shape the future architecture of global military power. Leadership in artificial intelligence will influence not only battlefield effectiveness but also intelligence superiority, economic resilience, industrial competitiveness and geopolitical influence.
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Military Decision-Making
One of the most profound consequences of artificial intelligence is not the automation of weapons systems, but the transformation of military decision-making itself. Throughout history, strategic success has depended upon the ability of political leaders and military commanders to interpret information accurately, assess rapidly changing conditions, and make timely decisions under immense uncertainty. Artificial intelligence is fundamentally altering this process by introducing computational systems capable of analysing vast quantities of operational data within seconds, generating predictive assessments, identifying emerging threats, and recommending courses of action with a speed that no human staff can replicate. As a result, the competitive advantage in future conflicts may increasingly depend on which side can make better decisions faster rather than which side possesses greater numerical superiority.
The modern battlefield generates an unprecedented volume of information. Satellite imagery, airborne surveillance platforms, electronic intelligence, cyber sensors, unmanned systems, radar networks, battlefield communications and open-source intelligence collectively produce millions of data points every hour. Human analysts remain indispensable for interpreting complex political and operational contexts, yet they are increasingly unable to process every available source in real time. Artificial intelligence addresses this challenge by filtering, prioritising and integrating information from multiple domains into coherent operational assessments. Rather than replacing commanders, AI enables them to operate within a far more comprehensive and continuously updated picture of the battlefield.
This development has significantly accelerated what military strategists describe as the decision cycle. Traditionally, military organisations progressed through sequential phases of observation, analysis, planning and execution, allowing sufficient time for information to pass through multiple levels of command before operational decisions were made. Artificial intelligence compresses this timeline dramatically. Machine-learning systems can detect abnormal military movements, identify logistical vulnerabilities, evaluate likely enemy intentions and simulate alternative operational outcomes almost instantaneously. The result is a military environment in which commanders may be expected to respond within minutes rather than hours. Decision speed is therefore becoming a strategic resource equal in importance to firepower or manoeuvre.
The acceleration of military decision-making, however, introduces new strategic risks. Faster decisions are not necessarily better decisions if they are based on incomplete information, flawed algorithms or manipulated data. Artificial intelligence systems remain dependent upon the quality of the information they receive. Cyberattacks, electronic warfare, deception operations or corrupted datasets can distort algorithmic outputs, potentially leading commanders toward incorrect conclusions at unprecedented speed. In future conflicts, adversaries may increasingly seek not only to destroy military systems but also to manipulate the information upon which artificial intelligence depends. Protecting data integrity therefore becomes as important as protecting physical infrastructure or weapons platforms.
Human judgement consequently remains indispensable despite rapid technological progress. Artificial intelligence excels at recognising patterns, processing information and generating probabilistic assessments, but it lacks political judgement, ethical reasoning and contextual understanding of complex diplomatic or strategic environments. Military operations frequently involve uncertainty, ambiguity and competing political objectives that cannot be resolved solely through computational optimisation. Decisions concerning escalation, proportionality, civilian protection and strategic risk require human responsibility that cannot be delegated entirely to algorithms. Effective military organisations will therefore seek to combine machine efficiency with human judgement rather than replacing one with the other.
This balance between automation and human oversight has become one of the defining debates surrounding military artificial intelligence. Some defence planners advocate increasing autonomy to improve operational speed, particularly in missile defence, electronic warfare and autonomous systems where reaction times may exceed human capabilities. Others warn that excessive automation could reduce political control over military operations and increase the risk of unintended escalation. The challenge lies in determining where human intervention remains essential and where artificial intelligence can safely assume greater operational responsibility. Establishing these boundaries will influence military doctrine, legal accountability and command structures for decades to come.
Artificial intelligence is also reshaping strategic planning before conflicts even begin. Predictive analytics increasingly support defence planners by modelling potential scenarios, evaluating force readiness, identifying logistical weaknesses and estimating the likely consequences of alternative policy decisions. Rather than relying solely on historical experience or manual simulations, governments can employ AI-assisted strategic analysis to assess emerging risks continuously. Such capabilities improve preparedness but also encourage more dynamic defence planning, allowing military institutions to adapt strategies as geopolitical conditions evolve rather than waiting for periodic strategic reviews.
The growing integration of artificial intelligence into command-and-control systems further reinforces its strategic importance. Modern military operations require continuous coordination between land, maritime, air, cyber and space assets operating simultaneously across multiple theatres. Artificial intelligence enables commanders to synchronise these diverse capabilities more effectively by identifying operational priorities, allocating resources dynamically and monitoring evolving battlefield conditions in real time. This multidomain integration significantly enhances operational flexibility while increasing the complexity of military command systems themselves. Future commanders will increasingly supervise intelligent networks rather than individual platforms.
Ultimately, artificial intelligence is transforming military command from a process centred primarily on information scarcity into one dominated by information abundance. The principal challenge facing future commanders will no longer be obtaining sufficient intelligence but determining which information deserves immediate attention and which algorithmic recommendations can be trusted under rapidly changing conditions. Military advantage will therefore depend not only upon technological sophistication but also upon institutional adaptability, professional education and command cultures capable of integrating artificial intelligence without sacrificing human judgement. In the emerging strategic environment, victory is likely to belong not to the military that automates the most functions, but to the one that most effectively combines intelligent technology with informed human decision-making.